Which parts of Europe will experience strong earthquakes in the future? What effect will these earthquakes have? Two models developed with EU support paint us an accurate picture.
We cannot accurately predict earthquakes, nor can we not prevent them, but effective steps to reduce their effects can save money and lives. During the 20th century, earthquakes in Europe were responsible for over 200 000 deaths and more than EUR 250 billion in damage. The question is, what economic and human losses will they result in this century?
To mitigate the effects of future catastrophic earthquakes in the EU, researchers across Europe have updated the earthquake hazard model that has existed since 2013 and created the first earthquake risk model for all of Europe. Developed with support from the EU-funded SERA, EPOS IP and RISE projects, the models significantly improve our understanding of which areas are most likely to experience strong shaking and what effects these earthquakes will have.
The two models are the basis for establishing mitigation measures and making European communities more resilient. However, what exactly is the difference between an earthquake hazard and an earthquake risk?Earthquake hazard describes how much the ground will shake at a specific location due to earthquakes that might occur locally or at a greater distance. Earthquake hazard assessments are based on knowledge of past earthquakes, geology, tectonics and local site conditions. Robust assessments can enhance our understanding of how often and how intensely the ground could shake in the future at a particular location.
Based on the updated 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model, the countries with the highest hazard in Europe are Albania, Greece, Italy, Romania and Turkey, followed by other Balkan countries. “However, earthquake hazard is also considerable in some regions of Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Iceland, Norway, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain, and Switzerland,” according to the European Facilities for Earthquake Hazard and Risk website.Earthquake risk describes the impact that future earthquakes may have on the built environment and people’s well-being. To determine earthquake risk, scientists need information on the density of buildings and people, the vulnerability of the built environment and robust earthquake hazard assessments that take into account the impact of local soil conditions.
The new 2020 European Seismic Risk Model estimates the probability of damage and losses to residential, commercial and industrial buildings (and their occupants) from potential future earthquakes. According to the model, the main drivers of earthquake risk are older buildings, urban areas and high earthquake hazard.
Cities such as Istanbul and Izmir in Turkey, Catania and Naples in Italy, Bucharest in Romania and Athens in Greece have a high earthquake risk. “In fact, these four countries alone experience almost 80% of the modelled average annual economic loss of 7 billion Euros due to earthquakes in Europe,” reports the EFEHR website. “However, also cities like Zagreb (Croatia), Tirana (Albania), Sofia (Bulgaria), Lisbon (Portugal), Brussels (Belgium), and Basel (Switzerland) have an above-average level of earthquake risk compared to less exposed cities, such as Berlin (Germany), London (UK), or Paris (France).”
The SERA (Seismology and Earthquake Engineering Research Infrastructure Alliance for Europe) and EPOS IP (EPOS Implementation Phase) projects ended in 2020 and 2019, respectively. RISE (Real-time Earthquake Risk Reduction for a Resilient Europe) ends in 2023.
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